# Strategic Wealth Doctrine v0.5 — Simulation Methodology

**Release:** v0.5.0, October 31, 2026  
**Status:** Model-verified internally through an independent Python implementation and automated parity tests. **Not** an external audit, actual participant data, financial advice, a return forecast, or scientific evidence of efficacy.

## 1. Research Question

What difference *could* a declared series of financial behaviors make over 10 years when two fictional people begin in an identical position and face identical external economic conditions?

**This is a conditional model, not an estimate of the doctrine's causal impact**. The interventions in the model were chosen by the authors; they are not observed behavior-change effects established by a randomized trial. The comparison is a realistic illustrative strategy, not the worst conceivable non-follower. Negative effects or no advantage are permitted when inputs change.

## 2. Baseline Inputs

| Parameter | Value | Epistemic status |
|:--|--:|:--|
| Starting annual gross wages | $45,000 | Invented person |
| Wage-tax haircut | 18% of wages, fixed | Illustrative simplified tax rate, **not** a tax computation |
| Initial liquid cash | $5,000 | Invented |
| Initial debt | $25,000 | Invented |
| Initial debt APR | 13% fixed, monthly interest | Invented contract, equal for both |
| Required debt payment | $350/month while balance exists | Invented, equal for both |
| Starting essential spending | $2,000/month | Invented, equal for both |
| Starting discretionary spending (comparison) | $625/month | Invented |
| Starting discretionary spending (doctrine) | $425/month | Invented; requires a real $200/month tradeoff |
| Cash yield | 0% | Conservative simplification applied equally |
| Employer contribution/matching | $0 | Excluded rather than assigned to one person |
| Investment balance at start | $0 | Invented, equal for both |
| Reserve policy (doctrine) | 4 months of inflation-adjusted essential spending | Chosen for this household, **not** a universal recommendation |
| Investment return | Same for both participants | No assumed program-generated investment alpha |

At Month 0: assets = $5,000 cash; liabilities = $25,000 debt; net worth = **−$20,000** in both cases.

## 3. Policy Rules

The **comparison path** pays the same required debt payment, then invests 50% of any positive monthly margin remaining after essential, discretionary and scenario expenses; the other 50% stays in liquid cash. It continues this pattern after its debt is extinguished. It makes no extra debt payments.

The **doctrine path** keeps the same required debt payment, first retains available cash until a four-month essential-spending cash floor is met, then directs up to the new monthly margin *above that floor* toward extra high-interest debt repayment. After repayment, it invests 75% of positive new monthly margin that can be funded above the reserve floor, retaining the rest as liquid cash. It begins with $200/month lower discretionary spending than the comparator, and both spending amounts inflate thereafter.

Neither path receives a better investment return, arbitrary promotion, charitable windfall, tax loophole, hidden financing, nor unpriced employer match. The doctrine path's improved result, if any, is partly *paid for by forgone spending*. This must be disclosed alongside the gain, not treated as free value creation.

## 4. Scenarios

| Scenario | Wage growth | Essential/discretionary inflation | Annual net investment return | Shared shocks |
|:--|--:|--:|--:|:--|
| Base | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | None |
| Stress | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.0%, except Year 8 −20% | Wage receipts zero in months 39–40; $2,500 repair in month 78 |
| Conservative | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.0%, except Year 8 −20% | Same wage interruption and repair |
| Optimistic | 4.0% | 2.5% | 8.0% | None |

All are user-adjustable for opening income, debt, cash, essentials, required payment, debt APR, and two discretionary spending levels. The scenario assumptions can be edited and tested in `site/model.js` or the independent Python reference. None are probabilities or expected returns.

## 5. Monthly Order Of Operations

For a month `m` in year `y = floor((m−1)/12)`:

1. **Wages** = `starting annual gross × (1 + wage_growth)^y × (1 − 0.18) / 12`. Set wages to $0 for an identified unemployment month.
2. **Essentials** = `initial essentials × (1 + inflation)^y`. Discretionary expenses follow the same indexation formula with each path's separate starting budget.
3. **Market growth** occurs on the investment balance *before* that month's new contributions, using monthly growth `r_m = (1 + annual net return)^(1/12) − 1`. A special yearly loss substitutes for the year-specific net return when declared.
4. **Debt interest** = `beginning debt × APR / 12`, added before repayment. **Required payment** = `min($350, debt plus interest)`.
5. **Available cash before discretionary allocation** = `opening cash + net wages − essentials − discretionary expenses − shocks − required debt payment`.
6. If this value is negative, record the difference as an **unfunded need** and mark the path **unfunded**. The prototype does not invent a rescue loan, credit approval, missed-payment consequences, or subsidy.
7. Any positive cash is applied to previously accumulated unfunded needs *before* discretionary investment or extra debt payments.
8. Apply the comparison or doctrine policy to a **nonnegative current-month margin** (not to money earmarked for past expenses). The doctrine's additional debt and investment transfers cannot breach its stated essential-cash floor.
9. **Net worth** = `cash + investment assets − modeled remaining loan balance − unresolved unfunded needs` in the bookkeeping diagnostic. **If the plan ever had an unfunded month, subsequent modeled net worth is not a feasible outcome and is suppressed in the public UI until a real-world remedy is specified.**

Every monthly row includes a cash conservation residual and a debt recurrence residual. Both must be approximately zero. Transfers between cash and investments never count as income or expense.

## 6. Modeling Exclusions And Tradeoffs

The model does **not** include cash yield, changing marginal tax brackets, capital gains realization or tax-lot accounting, differences in health insurance or public benefits, employer match, contribution limits, childcare, house equity, asset valuation, legal disputes, unpaid care, business investment, debt default penalties, financial advice fees, market sequence variation beyond the specified annual loss, or the cost of adherence. The assumed annual *net* investment return is intended to stand in for some costs/taxes/fees but is not a personalized after-tax estimate.

The lower discretionary spend reflects real consumption foregone and can have welfare costs. The result is therefore not a proof that the doctrine makes the participant better off in every life dimension. Cash runway measures *cash divided by essentials*, not lived capacity to recover.

Inflation-adjusted Year `t` values are the corresponding nominal values divided by `(1 + annual inflation)^t`, expressed in Year 0 purchasing-power dollars; this does not create a CPI forecast.

## 7. Audit Trail And Reproduction

The release contains:

- `site/model.js`: the browser-accessible deterministic engine.
- `audit/reference_model.py`: separately written Python reference implementation.
- `audit/test_model.mjs`: cross-engine numerical parity and boundary tests.
- `audit/*_monthly.csv`: 120 months × two participants × each scenario, at full precision.
- `audit/audit_results.json`: year-by-year balances and full input assumptions.
- `audit/test_results.txt`: test execution log.

From the release root: `python3 audit/reference_model.py`, then `node audit/test_model.mjs` (Node.js 20+). Serve `site/` from a simple static HTTP server rather than opening `file://` because ES modules may be blocked on local files.

### Acceptance Criteria

- Same Month 0 starting position for both participants.
- Cash and debt recurrence residuals below $0.000001 each month.
- No negative modeled principal, cash, or investment assets after accounting for unfunded needs.
- No program-specific market performance advantage.
- Python and JavaScript financial values agree within $0.00001 on all 960 scenario-path-month calculations for key stock and cash-flow quantities.
- A cash funding gap is never turned into an unpriced investment gain or invisible loan, and invalid subsequent outcomes are suppressed from charts and headline statistics.
- The net-worth gap is presented as a difference **under supplied assumptions**, never an experimentally established treatment effect.

## 8. Sources And Claim Limits

- Original Doctrine v0.4.4: [Strategic Wealth Doctrine, expanded manuscript](https://strategic-wealth-doctrine.alertpin14.chatgpt.site/downloads/Strategic_Wealth_Doctrine_v0_4_Expanded.md). Supports conceptual mapping and the conditional-rules design; **not** empirical program effectiveness.
- [CFPB: Financial Well-Being Scale](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/consumer-tools/financial-well-being/). Supports choosing a validated financial well-being outcome; does not validate Strategic Wealth Doctrine.
- [Investor.gov: Compound Interest Calculator](https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator). Supports illustrative mathematics; not a guaranteed investment return.
- [FTC: Advertising FAQs](https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/advertising-faqs-guide-small-business). Advertising claims need substantiation; disclaimers alone cannot cure a misleading impression.
- [SEC: Investment Adviser Marketing](https://www.sec.gov/resources-small-businesses/small-business-compliance-guides/investment-adviser-marketing). Apply rule only when its regulatory conditions apply; hypothetical performance can carry special obligations.

**Independent expert examination is still needed before calling the system independently audited or scientifically validated.**